If you’re planning to fly somewhere this summer, now’s the time to book your tickets.
“We’re right across what we call the Goldilocks Window at Going for when to buy summer flights,” Katy Nastro, a travel expert at airfare deals website Going, told USA TODAY in an email. “The best odds of finding a deal for domestic travel are about 3-7 months out, with 3 months being the latest you’d want to wait. The same goes for international summer trips, but with a slightly wider window of roughly 4-10 months ahead for the optimal sweet spot.”
The war in Iran is adding uncertainty to summer travel, however. Reuters reported that jet fuel prices rose 15% in the last week, and that could mean higher ticket prices for those who wait to book.
Still, Nastro said, it’s an open question how much of an effect the war will have on airfares, even if it means higher fuel prices.
“Airline CEOs, like United’s Scott Kirby, are warning of higher fares due to oil price spikes, but just because oil prices rise doesn’t mean fares will necessarily follow suit,” she said, adding that demand often does more to dictate airline ticket prices than fuel costs.
“We probably will see less people wanting to travel long-haul this year if geopolitical tensions are still high, which means demand can soften. Sure, higher oil prices raise airlines’ costs, but if travelers aren’t willing − or wanting − to pay more, airlines can’t push fares too high without risking empty seats,” Nastro said.
A prolonged and broadening military campaign in the Middle East could create major financial and operational difficulties for airlines.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank warned about the possible effects in a recent report.
“Absent near-term relief, airlines around the world could be forced to ground 1,000s of aircraft while some of the industry’s financially weakest carriers could halt operations,” the report said.
Other analysts say that if prices continue to rise for a long period of time, it will inevitably lead to higher ticket prices.
“I’m pretty convinced the airlines are going to … look to pass through the costs to end consumers (only if needed in the event of sustained fuel inflation) instead,” Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker told Reuters.
Nastro said she hasn’t seen any signs that airlines are planning to reduce capacity yet, but added that for passengers, now is still the best time to book summer travel, even amid all the geopolitical uncertainty.
“The best piece of advice for people worried about summer prices is to look and book now,” she said. “Airfare is uncertain, but what we do know, regardless of what’s going on around us, is that now is an optimal window for better prices.”
Zach Wichter is a travel reporter and writes the Cruising Altitude column for USA TODAY. He is based in New York, and you can reach him at [email protected].
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Now is the time to book summer flights, as uncertainty could raise prices
Reporting by Zach Wichter, USA TODAY / USA TODAY
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect