The Detroit Three have minimal exposure — in terms of new vehicle sales — in the Middle East, but as the war against Iran rages on, carmakers and auto analysts are watching developments closely for other serious fallout.
On Feb. 28, the United States and Israel bombed Iran after President Donald Trump said Iran was building nuclear weapons that threaten U.S. allies and could “soon” reach the shores of the United States. Iran retaliated by attacking Israel and Middle Eastern countries that host U.S. military bases.
“We are absolutely following the effects of this,” said Sam Fiorani, vice president of Global Vehicle Forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions. “The largest disruptor, especially for the Detroit Three, will likely be economic. Changes in oil prices and wavering of consumer confidence will be the bigger drivers of the market over disruption of parts or vehicles.”
Fiorani said an extended conflict will reduce demand in the region for Ford Motor vehicles made in China, which are what is mostly sold in that market. Also, General Motors and Stellantis will likely see a drop in demand for trucks that are made in North America. But overall new vehicle production in North America will likely not be impacted substantially, he said.
Ford, GM and Stellantis told the Detroit Free Press, part of the USA TODAY Network, that they continue to closely monitor the war in case they have to evacuate personnel in the Middle East, the crisis escalates and disrupts the supply chain or other causes create economic fallout that could impact global new car sales.
What are sales like for detroit automakers in the middle east?
U.S. automakers do not sell a lot of vehicles in the Middle East overall, Fiorani said.
“The region’s largest car market is Iran and American brands are not officially sold there,” Fiorani said.
Here is how it breaks down: Including models produced outside of North America, American brands make up just over 8% of the market in Iraq, about 9% in Saudi Arabia, less than 12% in the United Arab Emirates and more than 14% in Kuwait, Fiorani said, citing data AutoForecast Solutions gets from a variety of sources.
“Syria, Yemen and Egypt sell extremely few new vehicles produced in North America,” Fiorani said.
In 2025, about 172,000 vehicles sold in the entire Middle East region were from Detroit Three brands, including models not produced in North America, making up about 5% of the 3.4 million unit market, he said. Fiorani said Ford sold about 79,000 vehicles in the region, GM sold about 62,000 (not including the 24,000 produced in Egypt) and Stellantis’ North American brands sold about 13,000. Tesla sold more than 17,000.
“About a third of Chevrolets sold in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were American-built trucks, while most Fords in the larger markets were imported from China,” Fiorani said. “Vehicle production in the Middle East is largely for local consumption. Countries like Egypt have high tariffs on imported vehicles which lures assembly to the country. Any exports from local plants are, for the most part, shipped to other Middle Eastern countries.”
A chance for chinese foothold
If the war boosts gasoline prices and they remain elevated for any significant time that becomes a problem for all automakers, but especially the Detroit Three, said David Whiston, senior equity analyst at Morningstar.
“They are nearly 100% light truck (sales) in the U.S. GM at least has some electric vehicles like Equinox, IQ, Blazer, and pickups to offer, but that does not make them immune to this,” Whiston told the Detroit Free Press.
Also, don’t assume gasoline prices in the Middle East won’t be impacted by the war, said Sam Abuelsamid, vice president of market research for Telemetry.
Despite cheap gas in Saudi Arabia, it’s a small market and, while Iran has cheap gasoline, that’s only because it’s heavily subsidized by the government to keep prices down and maintain social stability, Abuelsamid said. He added that despite having huge reserves of oil and exporting a lot of it, Iran has little refining capacity and imports almost all of the gasoline used.
That could make the Middle East ripe for the next Chinese car company invasion, he said, because Chinese cars are largely electric and offer high technology at low prices.
“In the wake of the war, it’s far from clear who will be in charge and the cost of recovery will be enormous,” Abuelsamid said. “It’s unlikely they will be able to maintain those low subsidized gas prices and we’re more likely to see substantial growth of Chinese imports than American” in the postwar Middle East.
Jamie L. LaReau is the senior autos writer who covers Ford Motor Co. for the Detroit Free Press. Contact Jamie at [email protected]. Follow her on Twitter @jlareauan. To sign up for our autos newsletter. Become a subscriber.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Here is how war in the Middle East could impact major automakers
Reporting by Jamie L. LaReau, Detroit Free Press / Detroit Free Press
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