The average tax refund so far in the 2026 tax season is not close to being $1,000 higher than it was a year ago, as the White House suggests is possible. But it is up by $351.
The Internal Revenue Service indicated that early filers have seen an average refund amount of $3,804 through Feb. 20, according to data released Friday, Feb. 27.
That’s up 10.2% from the average of $3,453 for the same time frame a year ago.
The latest statistics compare this year’s filing season results through Feb. 20 with last year’s results through Feb. 21, 2025. The IRS began accepting and processing federal income tax returns on Jan. 26. As a result, we’re seeing a glimpse into the first four weeks of a long tax season. The filing deadline is April 15.
The IRS has issued tax more than 28.7 million refunds through Feb. 20, according to the latest data released on Friday, Feb. 27.
That’s down 3% from the same time frame a year ago when more than 29.6 million federal income tax refunds were issued.
The average refund is indeed bigger than what we saw during this same time frame in 2025. But it remains short of some expectations.
According to a post on the White House site, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act was set to deliver “the biggest tax refund season ever, with average refunds projected to rise by $1,000 or more this year due to its transformative policies.”
Last year, the average federal income tax refund was $3,167 at the end of 2025 — up 0.9% from 2024, according to the IRS.
Will the average refund go up by nearly 32% — or hit $4,167 — by the end of 2026? We’ll see what happens. The IRS issues updates on the tax season each week.
Tax filers received more than $109.3 billion in tax refunds so far this year through Feb. 20. That’s up 6.9% from a year ago.
By law, the Internal Revenue Service cannot issue federal income tax refunds before Feb. 15 for returns that claim the earned income tax credit or the additional child tax credit.
This year, the IRS expects most refunds for early filers claiming the earned income tax credit and the additional child tax credit will be available in bank accounts or on debit cards by March 2 — if taxpayers chose direct deposit and have no other issues with their returns.
Some experts remain concerned that some taxpayers could face delays in receiving their tax refunds this year, particularly if mistakes are made claiming some new tax breaks for tip income, overtime pay, new car loan interest for cars with final assembly in the United States, and a new enhanced deduction for seniors.
National Taxpayer Advocate Erin Collins has noted that this tax season the IRS will be confronting a 27% reduction in its workforce, turnover in the agency’s leadership and all the challenges of implementing complex tax law changes that went into place retroactively for 2025 after the One Big Beautiful Bill was signed into law July 4.
The IRS has processed more than 41.3 million returns in the first four weeks through Feb. 20 than during a similar period a year ago. That’s down 2.4% from a year ago.
The IRS has received more than 41.8 million tax returns through Feb. 20, down 1.9% from a year ago.
One stat seems to indicate that taxpayers have plenty of questions this tax season. The number of visits to IRS.gov where many questions can be answered has gone up 46.3% in the first four weeks. The latest report indicated that the IRS website has had more than 244.5 million visits to the site so far this year.
Contact personal finance columnist Susan Tompor: [email protected]. Follow her on X @tompor.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: 2026 tax refunds are up $351. Here’s what it means for you.
Reporting by Susan Tompor, Detroit Free Press / Detroit Free Press
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